Written by: Ali Assad

Mr. Mohamed Nasheed has disclosed in an interview given to local newspapers that a coup will happen in Maldives before 2018.

This spectacular revelation only raised more questions. The five W’s, “what”, “who”, “where”, “when” and “why”, were left thirsty for answers.

Nevertheless, it must be sweet music to the ears of thousands of Nasheed’s supporters. Maldivian Democratic Party (MDP) has been going through every nook and cranny to find a way to rescue Nasheed from his jail sentence.

Recent announcement by Nasheed to compete for 2018 presidential race has renewed hope among MDP members.

During 2008 presidential elections, Nasheed faced many obstacles and legal hurdles to his candidacy. Chances of him participating in 2013 elections looked even more grim due to the pending charge of kidnapping a Chief Justice. The scenario change from defendant to presidential candidate, when Nasheed was awarded MDP presidential ticket for 2013, widely seen as a defence technique to escape the courts, put heavy international pressure on Dr. Waheed’s government to allow Nasheed to compete. So, what are his chances for 2018?

In 2018, the role change is much bigger, from a convicted kidnapper to a presidential candidate. Many in the international communities has voiced their opinion that the trail is not fair and he should be released. The question of whether the trail is fair or not is debatable but the fact that Nasheed ordered the kidnapping of a serving judge is not. In an interview given to BBC Hardtalk, Nasheed confessed to the crimes and stated if given another chance “I will do it again”.

Like all countries, the constitution of Maldives does not allow the participation of a criminal in a presidential race. Unlike the more diplomatic Dr. Waheed, the incumbent president Yameen’s no-nonsense attitude will be a hindrance for Nasheed to achieve his way. The overthrow of a legitimate government and overriding the constitution looks like the only open option.

To understand the gravity of the situation one needs to walk through the recent history of coups in Maldives.

In 1953 Nasheed’s grandfather Kerefaa Dhon Maniku attempted to assassinate the first democratic president of Maldives, President Ameen Didi.

During 1968 Nasheed’s father Kerefaa Abdul Sattar was convicted for smuggling a pistol to assassinate President Ibrahim Nasir. 

As recent as 1980 Nasheed’s uncle Kerefaa Ahmed Naseem attempted a coup against President Maumoon Abdul Gayyoom. 

The last and bloodiest coup attempt was in 1988, with the help of Nasheed’s in-law Sikka Ahmed Ismail Maniku, another failed coup was attempted against Maumoon, in which 19 innocent Maldivians were slaughtered.

Nasheed has a family history of coups and makes one wonder whether it is hereditary.

Time-lapse of newspaper clippings of Nasheed's interviews shows his evolution from a person who does not want the presidency, to informing the media that he is the only MDP candidate, to advising the opposition political parties that the best option is having one opposition candidate and later dictating that he is the only opposition candidate - spawns a picture of someone with a pervert lust for power.

Nasheed claims in the interview that “before 2018 I will get foreign influence to change the government of Maldives. I am also negotiating with India on this”.

Going back to 1988, the coup attempt was by a group of Maldivians led and assisted by armed mercenaries of a Tamil secessionist organisation from Sri Lanka, the People's Liberation Organisation of Tamil Eelam (PLOTE), to overthrow the legitimate government of Maldives. President Gayoom, which the mercenaries failed to capture, asked for military intervention from India, the United States, and the United Kingdom. Indian Prime Minister Rajiv Gandhi immediately dispatched 1,600 troops by air, which helped in failing the coup attempt and capturing the terrorists.

Again, on 7th February 2012, President Nasheed initially requested India to send Indian troops to silence demonstrators calling for his resignation. Indian press reported that Indian officials believed the situation in Maldives was a domestic one and India will not intervene in domestic affairs of a foreign country. After his decision to resign, according to Indian officials, India through discussions with Nasheed, helped to facilitate the transition of power. India was the first country to recognize the new Maldivian government.

Later the CONI (Commission of National Inquiry) report conduct with the support of United Nations and Commonwealth revealed that Nasheed resigned on his own free will. Incredible India’s Prime Minister Manmohan Singh was spot on in making the correct decision.

Will the current Prime Minister of India Narendra Modi be willing to send troops to overthrow a legitimate foreign government? Which countries will be helping Nasheed to bomb Maldives? Will there be only drone attacks or foreign troops send to Maldives? Will Maldives become another Iraq or Syria?

Tomorrow is unimaginable as quoted by president Nasheed “When my party member pesters me for something I will grant that request. But if another party member pesters me, my evilness will be clearly seen. I can do many things with my left hand and right hand. Never think, and none of you can even imagine, the things I will do or not”

Written by: Ali Assad

To some, what happened in Maldives on 7th February 2012 is bigger than the mystery of Kennedy assassination or Loch Ness monster.

For some the reality is as easy as telling blind folded whether the zebra is black with white stripes or white with black stripes -definitely a Coup d’état.

The political quarrels led to the formulation of a Commission of National Inquiry (CONI) with the supervision and backing of United Nations and Commonwealth, which revealed that Mr. Mohamed Nasheed resigned on his own free will.

Rather than dwelling on these contradicting details, following is a time line of what unfolded leading to the power change.

To understand 7th February one has to step back at least a day to walk through the events which led to the demise of Nasheed.

Continuous 22 days of protesting by the opposition had started against the unconstitutional detention of Criminal Court Chief Justice Abdullah Mohamed (Abdullah Ghazee) at Henveiru district, Artificial Beach area of Male’, on the night of 6th February 2012. Also, members of the democratic political party of Maldives MDP had gathered to protest against the protest. Luckily there was no group protesting against the protesters who were protesting the protest. If there were it would have made a great tongue twister.

A blue line of police separated the verbally volatile crowd of demonstrators throwing verbal obscenities at each other. One side the opposition and on the other side the governing party members, which the opposition claimed were more comfortable to demonstrate then run the government.

The circumstances that made this night extraordinary began when the sandwiched police force suddenly started to leave the scene. As expected both the crowds advanced towards each other and the situation escalated dangerously towards a fight. Immediately the police made a detour of their departure and intervened, both parties were pushed back without any bloodshed.

Most people in the crowd were unaware that this was just the “starters” and “main course” was on its way.

The night turned more dramatic when around more than 5 military trucks plus a huge force of military personnel carrying shields and in riot gear marched into the scene. It was unbelievable that the Commander in Chief has sent a small army to control a crowd being handled by a handful of police officers.

Hesitantly the small police force left, escorted by loud cheers from the MDP protesters, while the bewildered opposition protesters were mainly silenced by the new eerie development.

What followed left most opposition supporters in disbelief and disheartened but gave MDP supporters plenty of fuel to jeer at their rivals. The Maldivian army deserted the place, leaving a rattled angry mob of about thousand Maldivian citizens to settle their disputes by their knuckles.

As soon as the dust from the departing army settled, the now loudly cheering MDP protesters, a much younger masculine force, started slowly advancing to face their inferior foe.

Before the battle, the crowds moved as close as five feet apart and without much fanfare fighting ignited suddenly with stones being thrown at each other. To everyone’s surprise, literally every stone thrown by MDP was met by a hail storm of stones by the opposition crowd. This was due to the lucky advantage of an unlimited supply of stones from a demolished house adjacent to Artificial Beach, right next to the side of the opposition demonstrators.

MDP’s strong muscular force was kept at bay, and can be seen painstakingly going to the beach area in search of stones but literally the only ones they could find were the ones thrown at them by their enemy. Surely if the fight had started with bare fists, opposition crowd would have received a bloody defeat with the possibility of a couple of deaths. The tides had turned and it was just a hail storm of stones that neither was winning.

The same week after his debatable resignation cum coup, Nasheed confessed in an interview aired by pro MDP channel RajjeTV, that it was under his orders that the police were removed from the scene and he also directly ordered the military to retreat from Artificial Beach.

Not sure how many minutes passed in these barbaric stone transactions – maybe 10 or 20 minutes.

Unexpectedly the strained chain of command snapped, the removed police force, disobeying their orders, rushed back to the scene to stop the fighting. Rushed back to their sworn duty, to protect and serve the people. This was the catalyst required for the retreated armed forces to stop watching the fighting from afar and intervene to end it.

Due to this event Nasheed ordered the police force to remain in the Republic Square (Jumhooreemaidhaan), right next to their headquarters. MNDF was ordered to cordon the area around this. It was a volatile cocktail for disaster that Nasheed was preparing for himself.

Other events unfolding concurrently includes, infuriated MDP supporters attacking and torching VTV (Villa T V station). After this opposition supporters threw a petrol bomb at Megachip (a business associated with a MDP MP). It was Tom and Jerry warfare, in the capital city, while Nasheed kept deadlocked the country’s security forces in an awkward stalemate.

Inevitably things calmed to a less volatile atmosphere near early morning by the time for the call of morning prayers. Most opposition demonstrators left the scene to pray at the mosque. There was hope dawning on a new day for Nasheed.

When the crowd thinned, Nasheed ordered the military to pull back to the gate area, in front of MNDF headquarters. What followed was a group of armed MDP supporters, with sticks and iron pipes attacking the thinned crowd of opposition protesters now stationed near Maldives Monetary Authority (MMA), near Republic Square.

The soldiers were shackled by Nasheed’s orders and the police force was detained in the middle of Republic Square, when the fight unfolded.

The fight was short, with a few casualties from both sides and none was life threatening.

However, this must have been an epic movement in demoralizing the MNDF as the attack could be clearly perceived as one orchestrated by Nasheed, as this came right after MNDF was unnecessarily ordered back from cordoning the area.

After this the opposition was seen arming themselves with pipes and rocks taken by damaging a nearby fence, temporary erected by the city council controlled by MDP. This fence was widely believed to be erected by city council to stop opposition from protesting in that area, as previous protest had taken place in this area and only after the fence was build, they were forced to protest in artificial beach area.

By morning the atmosphere can be best described as calm. Both the crowds, opposition and MDP were protesting less than hundred feet apart, only hurling verbal obscenities at each other. Opposition near MMA and almost in the next block near Reefside shop, MDP protesters were gathered. It was comical that both groups were seen enjoying morning tea in a café (Metro Café’), right in the middle.

It was during this time period that Nasheed had marched into Republic Square and met the detained and now protesting police force. He demanded that the police force hand themselves up to MNDF. The meeting did not go well and the police force clearly did not want to heed to his demands.

After this an enraged Nasheed was seen in videos leaving and entering MNDF headquarters. A while later, MP Mariya Didi leading the MDP crowd marched into Republic Square, demanding to arrest the police. This was immediately followed by a stronger opposition crowd, now armed with pipes and rocks, which quickly escalated into a fight, also some police officers joined, eventually chasing the MDP crowd from the area.

From a leaked video Nasheed can be seen ordering MNDF officers to immediately go out and arrest the police force as they had attacked Mariya.

What followed next must have been the tipping point of no return for Nasheed’s term in office. Armed forces immediately started shooting tear gas canisters and rubber bullets at the police forces and opposition crowd. The ferocity of the attack was so high that one standing near MMA could not see the multi-story police building (Shaheed Hussain Adam Building) due to the heavy extent of tear gas.

Unluckily for Nasheed, the winds on that day blew most of the gas back onto MNDF headquarters and also schools in the center of Male were effected.

The attack only rattled the opposition and police forces, who were now throwing stones at MNDF headquarters. MNDF forces were forced to retreated back into their headquarters.

Calls for the release of Judge Abdullah Ghazee changed to louds roars for Nasheed’s resignation.

The mess Nasheed had created resembled a drunk out on a limb with a chainsaw.

Later rumors of his resignation flooded the crowd and that afternoon Nasheed met his cabinet in the President’s office and gave his resignation speech in front of the media.

And the very next day – you know what unfolded.

“There are some who advocate for democracy only when they are out of power. Once in power, they are ruthless in suppressing the rights of others.” President Obama